改革开放以来,我国进口贸易增长经历了七次基钦短周期波动。进口商品结构特征、进口替代能力、宏观调控措施、各国对华贸易政策、大项目集中进口等是影响波动的主要因素。稳定的进口增长对国民经济发展的良性循环具有重要的作用,扩大的进口贸易对实现国民经济的强盛具有不可替代的作用。 Since the reform and opening up, the growth of China’s import trade has experienced seven cycles of Kitchem short-term fluctuations. The structural features of imports, import substitution capabilities, macro-control measures, the trade policies of all countries with China, and the centralized importation of large projects are the major factors influencing the volatility. Stable import growth plays an important role in the virtuous circle of national economic development. Expanded import trade has an irreplaceable effect on the realization of the strong national economy.