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为提供准确、可靠的应急物资需求量的实时信息,建立基于模糊群决策的需求预测模型。通过数据收集、数据预处理、信息集结,将专家个人对应急物资需求预测的一型模糊集合集结成群体意见的二型模糊集合。分别讨论集结过程中专家权重是确定数值和一型模糊集合2种情况的预测方法。将该预测方法运用到应急决策案例中,求解结合多部门意见的物资需求量。结果表明,用该模型能在信息匮乏条件下预测应急物资需求,与一型模糊预测相比,能保留更多的个体预测信息。
To provide accurate and reliable real-time information on the demand for emergency supplies, a demand forecasting model based on fuzzy group decision-making is established. Through the data collection, data preprocessing and information gathering, a type-1 fuzzy set of expert’s individual demand forecasting for emergency materials is assembled into a type-2 fuzzy set of group opinions. We discuss separately the weight of experts in the process of aggregation, which is the prediction method of two kinds of situations of determining the value and one type of fuzzy set. The forecast method is applied to emergency decision cases to solve the material demand combined with the multi-sectoral opinions. The results show that this model can predict the demand for emergency supplies in the absence of information, and can retain more individual forecast information than one type of fuzzy forecast.