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土坝内部冲刷与管涌引起失事的概率 ,可以根据历史性状用事件树法进行估计。除初步评估外 ,事件树法用于其他各种评估都是很合适的 ,因为该法能较好地模拟坝的特性。旨在指导怎样根据对有关过程的了解、坝的历史性状和最新风险分析的经验 ,用事件树法估计条件概率。这包括表示水库水位的方法 ;确定发生管涌的可能性 ;确定用反滤层或过渡区控制内部冲刷的可能性 ;以及确定管涌和决口扩展的可能性
The probability of crashes caused by erosion and piping inside the earth dam can be estimated by event tree based on historical traits. In addition to the initial assessment, the event tree method is suitable for a variety of other assessments, as the method better models dam behavior. The purpose is to guide how to estimate the conditional probability based on the knowledge of the process, the historical properties of the dam and the latest risk analysis. This includes methods of indicating reservoir levels, determining the probability of occurrence of pipe bursting, determining the possibility of controlling internal scrubbing with a filter or transition zone, and determining the likelihood of pipe bursts and bursts expanding