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对烟草赤星病流行过程中的3个环节－孢子萌发侵入、潜育显症和病斑扩展进行了定量研究，提出了孢子侵入概率与露温、露时的关系，逐日累积显症率与显症日数关系，病斑面积与病斑日龄关系4个回归预测式，为建立电算预测模型提供了定量依据。
The three steps in the epidemic of brown spot disease-spore germination invasion, latent disease and spot expansion were studied quantitatively, and the relationship between the probability of spore invasion and exposure to temperature and dew was put forward. The daily accumulation rate and the significant The relationship between the number of days, the relationship between lesion area and the age of the lesion 4 regression prediction formula, to provide a quantitative basis for predicting computer computing model.