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基于1997~2012年的我国省域数据,构建了经济距离权重矩阵,并引入空间自相关分析方法和空间面板计量模型,探讨了能源禀赋和技术进步对碳排放强度的空间效应。结果显示:(1)样本区间内,中国碳排放强度全域Moran’s I指数均为正值,且通过了1%水平的显著性检验,即我国区域碳排放强度呈现出显著的空间自相关特征。(2)能源禀赋与碳排放强度显著正相关,在能源丰裕地区,能源密集型产业具有比较优势,更倾向于提高能耗来发展经济。与此同时,能源禀赋对碳排放强度的刺激作用还外溢到了其他地区。(3)技术进步能有效提高碳排放效率,是实现节能减排的重要手段。R&D投入和外商直接投资对碳排放强度均表现出显著的抑制作用,但对其他地区的溢出效应还有待提高。
Based on the provincial data of China from 1997 to 2012, the weight matrix of economic distance was constructed and spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial panel measurement models were introduced to explore the spatial effect of energy endowments and technological advances on carbon intensity. The results showed that: (1) Within the sample interval, the Moran’s I index of China’s carbon emission intensity was positive and passed the significance test of 1% level. That is, the intensity of regional carbon emissions in China showed significant spatial autocorrelation. (2) There is a significant positive correlation between energy endowment and carbon intensity. In energy-rich regions, energy-intensive industries have comparative advantages and tend to increase energy consumption to develop economy. At the same time, the stimulus of energy intensity on carbon intensity has spilled over to other regions. (3) Technological progress can effectively improve the carbon emission efficiency, which is an important means to achieve energy saving and emission reduction. R & D investment and foreign direct investment have a significant inhibitory effect on the intensity of carbon emissions, but the spillover effect on other regions needs to be improved.