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本文运用基于持久收入和暂时收入的两种分解方法的省际面板模型检验了持久收入理论的三个假设。结果发现,我国城镇和农村居民消费与其持久收入均显著相关。我国城镇居民消费与其暂时收入显著相关;安徽、黑龙江、吉林、陕西、甘肃、青海、云南和海南等省农村居民的暂时收入的边际消费倾向等于零,而其他省份的不等于零。“λ假说”检验表明,我国城镇和农村居民消费对当期收入都是过度敏感的,导致PIH的局限性。选择误差修正项的绝对值表征不确定性和远期的流动性约束对城镇(或农村)居民消费的影响,计量结果显示,不确定性和远期的流动性约束对城镇(或农村)居民消费产生了明显的负面影响。农村居民的预防性储蓄动机强度大于城镇居民。
In this paper, we test three hypotheses of the theory of long-run income by using inter-provincial panel models based on two decompositions of persistent income and temporary income. The results show that the consumption of urban and rural residents in our country is significantly related to their long-term income. The consumption of urban residents in China is significantly related to their temporary income. The marginal propensity to consume of rural residents in Anhui, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan and Hainan provinces is equal to zero, while other provinces are not equal to zero. “λ hypothesis ” test shows that the consumption of urban and rural residents in China is over-sensitive to current income, resulting in the limitation of PIH. The choice of the absolute value of the error correction term characterizes the impact of uncertainty and long-term liquidity constraints on urban (or rural) household consumption. The measurement shows that uncertainty and long-term liquidity constraints affect urban (or rural) residents Consumption has had a significant negative impact. Preventive saving motives of rural residents are greater than those of urban residents.