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2003—2008年从田间系统地监测了云南元江和华宁桔小实蝇的发生规律.将诱虫资料和温度、湿度、雨量、光照等气象资料作为预测因子,采用简单逐步回归和多因子互作回归分别进行拟合,建立了不同发生量预测预报模型,并对其进行检验.结果表明发生量与多因子交互之间存在相关关系,可采用预报模型较为准确地预测出桔小实蝇的发生量,且多因子互作组建的模型比简单逐步回归的结果可靠.
From 2003 to 2008, the occurrence regularities of Yuanjiang and Huaning orange moths in Yunnan Province were systematically monitored from the field, using the data of insect traps and meteorological data such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and light as predictors, using simple stepwise regression and multi- Regression model was used to establish the forecasting model of different amount of occurrence and test it.The results showed that there was a correlation between the amount of occurrence and multi-factor interaction, the prediction model can be more accurately predict the fruit fly The amount of occurrence, and multi-factor interaction model is more reliable than the simple stepwise regression results.