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过去500年的大震记录表明喜马拉雅构造带中段和东段存在地震破裂空区,目前东段区域(藏东及邻区)处于经历了大范围长时期6级活动平静期后的空区解体阶段(1971-2004年在藏东周围形成长达33年的6级地震空区),其中长期潜在危险值得关注.对比分析上一轮活跃期中1950年墨脱8.6级地震前区域地震活动特征后,发现当前与上一轮活动演化时空图像相似.据此认为,当前藏东6级空区内,4、5级地震条带正在形成,目前孕震状态仍处于空区内中强地震的持续增强阶段,从时间序列演化推测未来几年可能有发生大地震到特大地震的危险性.
Earthquake records over the past 500 years indicate that there is an earthquake-ruptured area in the middle and eastern Himalayan tectonic belt. At present, the eastern segment (in eastern Tibet and its neighboring regions) is in the process of empty zone disintegration after a long period of long-term active 6 (The long-term potential danger is worth noting for the 6-year-long earthquake-prone area of 33 years around Tibet in 1971-2004.) After analyzing the characteristics of regional seismic activity before the Moto-Eka earthquake of 1950 in the last active period, It is found that the current time-space images are similar to those of the previous activity, and it is believed that the current seismic bands of 4 and 5 earthquakes are forming in No.6 Gudong area, and the current seismogenic state is still in the middle of the area. According to the evolution of time series, it is estimated that there will be danger of large earthquakes to great earthquakes in the coming years.