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所谓预测,就是根据某个变量或其他有关变量的已知或过去数值来推断其未来状况的过程。预测一般按以下步骤进行:(一)确定预测目的。(二)整理、分析历史和现实资料。(三)选择预测方法。(四)进行预测。(五)论证预测结果,分析预测误差。本文介绍几种统计预测方法,并作简要分析:一、简单的预测方法:(一)朴素的预测方法1、假定不发生任何变动时的预测。当某一变量不发生变动或几乎不发生变动时,可运用本法。设 t 时期实际数为 Xt,t+1时期的预测数为 X′_(t+1),则预测公式为:X′t+1=X_ (1)
The so-called prediction, is based on a variable or other relevant variables known or past values to infer the future status of the process. Prediction is generally carried out according to the following steps: (a) to determine the purpose of the forecast. (B) organize, analyze historical and realistic information. (C) select the forecast method. (D) to make forecasts. (V) demonstration of forecast results, analysis of forecast errors. This article describes several statistical prediction methods, and make a brief analysis: A simple prediction method: (A) simple prediction method 1, assuming no changes in the forecast. When a variable does not change or almost does not change, you can use this law. Suppose the actual number of t is Xt and the forecast number of t + 1 is X ’_ (t + 1), then the prediction formula is: X’t + 1 = X_ (1)