INTRODUCTION Predicting the future of paper industry is conventionally conducted from the technological and market-oriented aspects as well as a variety of constraints lying ahead of the industry such as resource, energy, and environmental issues.Since paper products, particularly paper media,have higher affinity to human being compared with other sheet-like materials such as plastics, metals,glasses and so on, not only the above factors but human factors such as ‘the affinity of paper to human being' and ‘the cognitive characteristics of paper'have to be taken into consideration in constructing a precise prediction model for the future of paper industry.