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过去10年全球经历了杠杆化风潮,各国总体债务水平明显上升。高杠杆率往往意味着高通胀和低增长,以及高的金融危机发生概率。中国的杠杆率总体水平并不算高,但过去10年快速提高。2011年为160%左右,但全社会的杠杆率相比2000年上升了40个百分点。居民和政府杠杆率的提高是本次杠杆率提高的主要原因。消费信贷,特别是住房抵押贷款是导致居民杠杆率上升的主要因素。4万亿元的财政扩张政策是非居民杠杆率上升的主要原因,初步估计政府的真实杠杆率为42%左右。信贷快速扩张也导致金融机构杠杆率提高。中国整体风险并不高,但是需要控制杠杆率的提高。居民的杠杆率近年快速上升,而政府的真实杠杆率也比看上去的要高。居民杠杆率的上升速度需要控制,而政府的杠杆率则需要保持稳定。未来几年中国杠杆率可能略有下降,这将对经济增长有所抑制。
In the past 10 years, the world has experienced a wave of leverage and the overall level of debt in all countries has risen markedly. High leverage often means high inflation and low growth, as well as the high probability of a financial crisis. The overall level of leverage in China is not high, but has risen rapidly in the past 10 years. In 2011, it was about 160%, but the total social leverage ratio increased by 40% over 2000. Residents and the government to raise the leverage ratio is the main reason for the increase in leverage. Consumer credit, especially mortgage loans, is the main factor leading to the increase of resident leverage. The 4 trillion yuan fiscal expansion policy is the main reason for the rise in non-resident leverage. A tentative estimate of the government’s real leverage is about 42%. Rapid credit expansion has also led to higher leverage in financial institutions. China’s overall risk is not high, but the need to control the increase in leverage. Residents’ leverage has rapidly risen in recent years, and the real leverage of the government is higher than it seems. The rate of increase in resident leverage needs to be controlled, while the government’s leverage needs to be stable. In the next few years, the leverage ratio in China may decline slightly, which will curb economic growth.