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本文应用图1所示框图用平面应变弹塑性有限单元分析方法,反演近700年华北地区发生的14个M_S≥7的地震迁移规律;用降低断层摩擦系数的办法模拟地震的应变能释放过程,然后保留断层的错距,得出残余应力分布,追踪地应力场的变化;借以预测唐山地震后,华北地区的地震危险区及未来地震对北京地区的影响。结果初步模拟了这样一个序列,给出了唐山震后的一些可能危险区。最后对几百年内边界外力可能有的变化及断层摩擦系数的可能范围进行了讨论。
In this paper, we use the plane strain elasto-plastic finite element analysis method to inverse the seismic migration law of 14 M_S≥7 occurred in North China in the past 700 years, and use the method of reducing the friction coefficient of the fault to simulate the process of releasing the strain energy of the earthquake , And then keep the fault’s fault distance to get the residual stress distribution to track the change of the geostress field. After that, it can predict the impact of the seismic danger zone in North China and the future earthquake in Beijing after the Tangshan earthquake. The results initially simulate such a sequence, giving some possible dangerous areas after the Tangshan earthquake. Finally, it is possible to discuss the possible changes of the external force and the possible range of the friction coefficient of the fault within a few hundred years.