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目的 探讨直接利用肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ） 定点监测资料对全省疫情进行定性预测的意义，寻找敏感且易获得的预测指标。方法 兼顾不同地理状况，选点开展鼠密度、鼠带毒率、带毒鼠指数、健康人群抗体水平监测；对江苏省１９８６ 年以来１２ 年的有关监测资料与人间疫情进行相关性分析。结果 春季室内褐家鼠（Ｒｎ） 密度，混合鼠种及Ｒｎ 带毒率、带毒鼠指数与春峰疫情有显著性相关关系；秋季野外混合鼠种及黑线姬鼠（Ａａ） 密度、带毒鼠指数与秋冬峰疫情显著性相关；全年平均鼠密度、鼠带毒率、带毒鼠指数与全年疫情显著性相关；人群隐性感染率与人间疫情无明显相关关系。其中，春季室内混合鼠种及褐家鼠带毒鼠指数与春峰疫情间相关系数分别为０ ．８６３７、０ ．８２９５ （ Ｐ＜ ０．００１） ；秋季野外混合鼠种、黑线姬鼠带毒鼠指数与秋冬峰疫情间相关系数分别为０ ．７０８９ 、０ ．７２５８ （Ｐ＜ ０ ．０１），与次年春峰疫情间相关系数分别为０．７１１８、０ ．７１１３ （ Ｐ＜ ０．０１） ；全年平均带毒鼠指数与全年疫情间相关系数为０．９２０７ （ Ｐ＜ ０ ．００１）。结论 带毒鼠指数为定性预测出血热疫情的首选指标；在布夹数均衡性较好条件下，鼠密度可作为预测的辅助指
Objective To explore the significance of direct use of HFRS fixed-point monitoring data to qualitatively predict the epidemic in the province, and to find sensitive and readily available predictive indicators. Methods Considering the different geographical conditions, we selected the mouse density, rat virulence rate, the rat poisoned rat index and the antibody level monitoring of healthy population. The correlation analysis between monitoring data and human epidemic situation in Jiangsu Province for 12 years since 1986 was conducted. Results The Rn density, mixed rat species and Rn virulence index and the index of tetramine poisoning in spring were significantly correlated with the peak of spring peak in spring. The density of mixed rodents and Aa in the wild in autumn The rat poison index was significantly correlated with the autumn and winter peak epidemic. The annual average rat density, the rat virulence rate and the index of tetramine poisoning were significantly correlated with the whole year’s outbreaks. There was no significant correlation between the latent infection rate and the human epidemic. Among them, the correlation coefficient between spring indoor mixed rat species and Rattus norvegicus poison rat index and Chunfeng outbreak was 0 respectively. 8637,0. 8295 (P <0.001). The correlation coefficients between the autumn murine mixed mouse species, Apodemus agrarius virulent rat index and autumn and winter peak epidemic were 0 and 0, respectively. 7089, 0. 7258 (P <0 .01), and the correlation coefficient between the outbreak of Chunfeng and the following year was 0.7118,0. 7113 (P <0.01). The correlation coefficient between annual average tetramine poisoning index and annual outbreak was 0.9207 (P <0.001). Conclusion The index of tetramine poisoned rat is the first choice for qualitative prediction of epidemic situation of hemorrhagic fever. Rat density can be used as a predictive auxiliary index