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[方法]利用德州市11个气象观测站1971~2014年逐日平均气温资料,采用五日滑动平均、经验频率法、趋势分析法,[目的]对该市0℃界限温度初(终)日、间隔日数、积温变化特征、稳定通过界限温度80%的保证率及其对粮食作物的影响进行分析。[结果]研究表明:德州地区≥0℃的初日呈显著提前趋势,增长速率为4.12d/10年,主要集中在2月中下旬;终日有延迟趋势,推后速率为0.27d/10年,主要集中在12月上旬;间隔日数显现出略增加趋势,增加速率为4.39d/10年,平均为288d;≥0℃活动积温呈现明显增加趋势,增温速率为117.2℃/10年,平均为4 982.5℃。全市稳定通过0℃界限温度80%保证率的初日范围为3月1~6日、终日范围为12月9~17日、积温范围在4 939.7~5 295.4℃之间。[结论]气候变化使当地热量资源增加,夏玉米等作物生长期延长,冬小麦播期有所推迟,返青期、成熟期提前全生育期天数缩短,对粮食作物造成的影响还需进一步进行综合分析。
[Method] Based on daily average air temperature data of 11 weather stations in Dezhou from 1971 to 2014, five-day moving average, empirical frequency method and trend analysis method were used to study the daily average temperature of 0 ℃, Interval days, changes in accumulated temperature, stability through the 80% limit temperature of the guarantee rate and its impact on food crops for analysis. [Result] The study showed that: the first day of ≥0 ℃ in Texas area showed a significant early trend, the growth rate was 4.12d / 10 years, mainly concentrated in the middle and late February; the delaying trend all the time, the postponement rate was 0.27d / 10 years, Mainly concentrated in early December; interval days showed a slight increase in the rate of increase of 4.39d / 10 years, an average of 288d; ≥ 0 ℃ activity accumulated temperature showed a significant increase trend, the warming rate of 117.2 ℃ / 10 years, with an average of 4 982.5 ° C. The city’s stability through the 0 ° C limit temperature 80% guarantee rate of the first day of March 1 to 6, the final day range December 9 to 17, the accumulated temperature range of 4 939.7 ~ 5 295.4 ℃. [Conclusion] The climatic change made the local caloric resources increase, the growth period of summer maize and other crops prolonged, the sowing date of winter wheat was postponed, the days of returning to greening stage and maturing stage were shortened and the impact on food crops needed to be further analyzed comprehensively .