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基于内生经济增长理论构建出了内生的经济发展中的水土资源“尾效”模型,并以中部的山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南等六省为例进行实证分析。利用SVAR分析水土资源与经济增长是否存在关系的基础上,通过纳入水土资源和人力资源的数据进行“增长尾效”的面板数据分析,量化测度出中部六省水土资源“尾效”的数值,数值显示,六省的水土资源已成为其经济增长的阻力。并通过比较分析得出:经济增长受到水土资源约束影响最大的是安徽省,每年的经济增长速度由于水土资源的耗费要降低大概0.53%,其次是山西、河南、江西、湖北,湖南的经济增长速度受到水土资源约束的影响最小,仅为0.09%。最后为中部地区水土资源可持续利用的提出对策及建议。
Based on the theory of endogenous economic growth, this paper constructs a model of endogenous water and land resources in endogenous economic development. The empirical analysis is carried out with six provinces in Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan in central China. Based on the SVAR analysis of the existence of the relationship between water and land resources and economic growth, this paper quantified and measured the water and soil resources of the six provinces in central China by means of panel data analysis of “growth and tail effect” by incorporating data of soil and water resources and human resources, The values and figures show that the water and land resources of the six provinces have become their resistance to economic growth. Through comparative analysis, it is concluded that economic growth is most affected by the constraints of water and land resources in Anhui Province. The annual economic growth rate is reduced by about 0.53% due to the consumption of water and soil resources, followed by the economic growth in Shanxi, Henan, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan provinces The speed of water and land resources constraints by the least affected, only 0.09%. Finally, it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable utilization of water and soil resources in the central region.