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What will a typical city’s mobility look like in 2050?
在2050年，一个典型城市的流通性会是怎么样的？
Of course, it’ll depend on which cities we’re talking about. I think that we will see variations between different parts of the world and different parts of the United States. My 1)prognosis is that the biggest game-changer in the future of cities by 2050 will be the technology at the moment, which is rapidly erupting in connectivity.
It often occurs to me that a lot of the travel that we do in our current environment is not travel that we really want to do, it’s because we work somewhere distant from where we live. And I would like to think that in the cities in 2050, generally each area of a large city will become more community-based. So there will be a lot more options for people not to have to move around in the first place. So rather than commute 20 or 30 miles across a big city, we’ll have the opportunity to do a lot of work,
当然，这要取决于我们讨论的是哪些城市。我觉得世界不同的地区，甚至美国不同的地区都会有差异性。我的预测是在2050年的未来城市中，最大的决定因素是那时在连通性上快速发展的科技。
我常常觉得，在我们现有的环境下，我们的大多数出行都并非出自我们的意愿，因为我们工作的地方离住的地方有些距离。我更愿意设想2050年的城市，普遍大城市中的每个区域都将更以社区为本。所以首先，人们会有很多选择，而不是只能跑来跑去。比起走20、30英里的路穿越一个大城市，我们将有机会在离我们很近的地方做很多工作，也
maybe not all of it, but a lot of our work quite close to where we live. We need to get away from the idea that we live in large dormitory areas and then we have all of our work and industry and office space in another area. There are plenty of good examples of how you can mix…mix the zones up and still make a very livable and enjoyable environment for people to live in. So, rather than a commute being a couple of hours out of every day, maybe a commute means just a couple of minutes.
What about in 2100?
那么2100年会是什么样子呢？
That’s more difficult to…that’s more difficult to say. I think if the human race is still around in 100 years, it means that we have…we’ve been hung very much over the edge of the cliff and we will have got good at a lot of things. I think even maybe by 2050—I mentioned it a little before—we will probably be moving goods a lot less, and food. We will be needing to grow a lot of the food and the goods that we consume; we need to produce that much more locally to where we live rather than 2)divorcing it from the cities. We need to become more integrated, and the same with work. I think that we’ll be far more community-based, in some ways, it’ll require us to...to go backwards a little. Maybe we’ll be living in smaller, but at the same time, much more desirable living spaces. It’s so difficult to predict what technologies we’ll have available in…in 90 years’ time. It’s difficult enough in 50 years’ time, but…so it’s really difficult to say.
So if we’ve got cities in 2100, it makes me very optimistic that we will be still around, we’ll be…if we’re still around it means we figured out how to do a lot of things much better than we’re doing now.
许并不是全部，但也是相当一大部分。我们需要摒弃这样的观念：我们住在大型的住宅区，而我们所有的工作、工业还有办公空间都在另一个区域。有很多成功例子是将这些区域融合在一起，但仍然能为人们营造一个舒适的、适宜居住的生活环境。所以通勤意味着你只用花几分钟的时间，而非每天都需要几个小时。
这就更难……这就更难说了。我觉得，如果一百年后人类还存在的话，我们的处境肯定很困难，我们要做好很多事情。我觉得就算到了2050年——我之前提到过一点儿——我们也很可能会大幅减少对商品和食品的运输，而是大量种植我们需要消耗的食物和商品。我们得在我们居住的地方生产出这些东西，而不是将它们从城市中分离出去。我们需要变得更有凝聚力，工作上也是一样。我觉得在一些方面，我们会更加以社区为本，那会需要我们后退一点点。我们可能会住在比较小，但同时更能满足我们需求的居住空间。我们很难预测90年后我们会拥有什么样的科技。预测50年后的都已经够难了，所以真的很难说。
所以，要说2100年的城市，我很乐观地认为人类还存在，我们会……如果我们那时候还在，就意味着我们搞懂了如何在很多事情上做得比现在好。
栏目翻译：小寒
在2050年，一个典型城市的流通性会是怎么样的？
Of course, it’ll depend on which cities we’re talking about. I think that we will see variations between different parts of the world and different parts of the United States. My 1)prognosis is that the biggest game-changer in the future of cities by 2050 will be the technology at the moment, which is rapidly erupting in connectivity.
It often occurs to me that a lot of the travel that we do in our current environment is not travel that we really want to do, it’s because we work somewhere distant from where we live. And I would like to think that in the cities in 2050, generally each area of a large city will become more community-based. So there will be a lot more options for people not to have to move around in the first place. So rather than commute 20 or 30 miles across a big city, we’ll have the opportunity to do a lot of work,
当然，这要取决于我们讨论的是哪些城市。我觉得世界不同的地区，甚至美国不同的地区都会有差异性。我的预测是在2050年的未来城市中，最大的决定因素是那时在连通性上快速发展的科技。
我常常觉得，在我们现有的环境下，我们的大多数出行都并非出自我们的意愿，因为我们工作的地方离住的地方有些距离。我更愿意设想2050年的城市，普遍大城市中的每个区域都将更以社区为本。所以首先，人们会有很多选择，而不是只能跑来跑去。比起走20、30英里的路穿越一个大城市，我们将有机会在离我们很近的地方做很多工作，也
maybe not all of it, but a lot of our work quite close to where we live. We need to get away from the idea that we live in large dormitory areas and then we have all of our work and industry and office space in another area. There are plenty of good examples of how you can mix…mix the zones up and still make a very livable and enjoyable environment for people to live in. So, rather than a commute being a couple of hours out of every day, maybe a commute means just a couple of minutes.
What about in 2100?
那么2100年会是什么样子呢？
That’s more difficult to…that’s more difficult to say. I think if the human race is still around in 100 years, it means that we have…we’ve been hung very much over the edge of the cliff and we will have got good at a lot of things. I think even maybe by 2050—I mentioned it a little before—we will probably be moving goods a lot less, and food. We will be needing to grow a lot of the food and the goods that we consume; we need to produce that much more locally to where we live rather than 2)divorcing it from the cities. We need to become more integrated, and the same with work. I think that we’ll be far more community-based, in some ways, it’ll require us to...to go backwards a little. Maybe we’ll be living in smaller, but at the same time, much more desirable living spaces. It’s so difficult to predict what technologies we’ll have available in…in 90 years’ time. It’s difficult enough in 50 years’ time, but…so it’s really difficult to say.
So if we’ve got cities in 2100, it makes me very optimistic that we will be still around, we’ll be…if we’re still around it means we figured out how to do a lot of things much better than we’re doing now.
许并不是全部，但也是相当一大部分。我们需要摒弃这样的观念：我们住在大型的住宅区，而我们所有的工作、工业还有办公空间都在另一个区域。有很多成功例子是将这些区域融合在一起，但仍然能为人们营造一个舒适的、适宜居住的生活环境。所以通勤意味着你只用花几分钟的时间，而非每天都需要几个小时。
这就更难……这就更难说了。我觉得，如果一百年后人类还存在的话，我们的处境肯定很困难，我们要做好很多事情。我觉得就算到了2050年——我之前提到过一点儿——我们也很可能会大幅减少对商品和食品的运输，而是大量种植我们需要消耗的食物和商品。我们得在我们居住的地方生产出这些东西，而不是将它们从城市中分离出去。我们需要变得更有凝聚力，工作上也是一样。我觉得在一些方面，我们会更加以社区为本，那会需要我们后退一点点。我们可能会住在比较小，但同时更能满足我们需求的居住空间。我们很难预测90年后我们会拥有什么样的科技。预测50年后的都已经够难了，所以真的很难说。
所以，要说2100年的城市，我很乐观地认为人类还存在，我们会……如果我们那时候还在，就意味着我们搞懂了如何在很多事情上做得比现在好。
栏目翻译：小寒