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目的利用现有的流行性感冒(流感)监测数据,探讨流感早期预警指标及其在2009年甲型流感大流行中的预警效果。方法选用沈阳18所哨点医院门诊流感样病例既往监测数据,采用控制图法,建立预警线,对2009和2010年的流感样病例百分比(ILI%)数据进行拟合,并结合新甲型H1N1疫情和病原学监测结果综合分析其早期预警效果。结果控制图法显示,ILI%较病原学监测和大疫情数据提前1周超过警戒线,ILI%趋势于新甲型H1N1疫情、流感病毒检出率变化趋势基本一致。结论 ILI%作为流感活动的监测指标较为可靠,控制图法可作为流感大流行敏感有效的早期预警指标。
Objective To evaluate the early warning index of influenza and its early warning effect in 2009 influenza A pandemic by using the existing surveillance data of influenza (influenza). Methods The past surveillance data of outpatients with influenza-like illness in 18 sentinel hospitals in Shenyang were used. The control charts were used to establish the warning line to fit the ILI% data of influenza-like cases in 2009 and 2010, and to combine with the new H1N1 Epidemic and etiological monitoring results comprehensive analysis of its early warning effect. Results The control charts showed that the ILI% exceeded the warning level one week earlier than the etiological surveillance and the major epidemic data, and the trend of ILI% was in the new H1N1 epidemic. The change trend of influenza virus was basically the same. Conclusion ILI% is reliable as a monitoring indicator of influenza activity. Control charts can be used as an effective early warning indicator of influenza pandemic.