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EMU的启动对EMU成员国、欧盟其他国家甚至全世界都有着很大的影响。但是在EMU启动至今已十年,它是否真的发挥了它应有的作用?为了研究这个问题本文选取了对EMU成员国贸易情况进行实证研究的角度来透视EMU启动所带来的影响。本文选取了1992～2007年的面板数据,并通过扩展引力模型实证检验了EMU对其成员国贸易的影响情况。本文研究结果表明:从整体上而言,EMU对其成员国的贸易影响是正面的,即:EMU的实施增加了EMU成员国与其它国家的双边贸易,但对于不同国家EMU的影响具有差异性。
The launching of the EMU has a great impact on EMU member countries, other EU countries and even the whole world. However, whether it really played its due role in the 10 years since the EMU was launched? In order to study this issue, this article chooses the empirical study of the trade situation in EMU member countries to examine the impact of EMU startup. This paper selects the panel data from 1992 to 2007 and empirically tests the impact of EMU on the trade of its member states by extending the gravity model. The results of this study show that: Overall, the EMU’s trade impact on its member states is positive, namely: the implementation of EMU has increased the bilateral trade between EMU member countries and other countries, but the impact on EMU in different countries is quite different .