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针对实际决策中的不确定性和偏好反转问题,提出一种区间不确定多属性决策方法.该方法通过证据推理方法集结区间不确定评估信息,采用累积前景理论代替主观期望效用理论构建方案的综合前景价值,从而应对不确定环境下可能的决策偏好反转,将区间可能度用于方案综合前景价值排序.介绍了决策过程,给出了求解方案综合前景价值的非线性规划模型,并通过实例验证了方法的可行性、合理性和有效性.
Aiming at the problem of uncertainty and preference reversal in practical decision-making, a multi-attribute decision-making method with interval uncertainty is proposed in this paper. The method uses evidence reasoning method to build uncertainty evaluation information in intervals and adopts cumulative prospect theory instead of subjective expectation utility theory In order to deal with the reversal of possible policy preferences in uncertain environment, the interval probabilities are used to rank the integrated foreground value of programs.The paper introduces the decision-making process and presents a nonlinear programming model to solve the comprehensive foreground value of the schemes, The example verifies the feasibility, rationality and effectiveness of the method.