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本文对股指期货推出后中国上市银行市值将可能发生的变化进行了分析。在考察国外主要股票市场推出股指期货前后市场走势的变化,以及对主要成分股股价的影响的基础上,对我国推出股指期货后可能对股票市场以及上市银行市值产生的影响进行预测,并对银行股的可操纵性进行分析。推出股指期货前后短期内,由于机构抢筹等原因,股票现货市场一般会出现较大波动,但长期中由于无风险套利行为的存在,市场走势仍由基本面决定。根据国际经验,中国上市银行市值在短期内会受到一定影响,但长期来看被市场作为操纵工具的可能性不大。
This article analyzes the possible changes in the market value of Chinese listed banks after the introduction of stock index futures. After examining the changes of the market trend before and after the introduction of the stock index futures in the major foreign stock markets and the impact on the stock prices of the major constituents, the paper forecasts the possible impact on the market value of the stock market and the listed banks after the introduction of stock index futures in our country, Stock maneuverability analysis. Since the introduction of stock index futures in the short term, the stock spot market will generally fluctuate largely due to such reasons as grabbing chips from the stock market. However, due to the existence of risk-free arbitrage in the long run, the market trend is still fundamentally determined. According to international experience, the market value of China’s listed banks will be affected to a certain extent in the short term, but it is unlikely that the market will be manipulated as a tool in the long run.