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采用R评分方法 ,对中国地震局 1 990到 1 998年的年度地震预报进行了统计和评估 .随机猜测预报R为 0 ,完全准确预报R为 1 .我国 90年代的年度预报R评分平均为 0 .1 84.如果把地震局实际预报与选取最大背景概率地区预报相结合 ,可以使R评分提高到 0 .336 .统计表明 ,中国年度地震预报对 5级以上地震的预报水平还不高 ,特别是在人烟稀少、台站缺乏的高地震背景概率区 ,预报效果较低 ;但在人口密集、经济发达的重点监测地区 ,中国地震局年度预报高于随机预报 ,实际预报取得了一定效果 .
The annual earthquake prediction of China Earthquake Administration from 1 990 to 1 988 was statistically calculated and evaluated by using R score method.The random prediction forecast R is 0 and the complete and accurate prediction R is 1. The annual forecast R score of China in 1990s is 0 .1 84. If the seismological Bureau’s actual forecast is combined with the regional forecast of the maximum background probability, the R score can be increased to 0.336. The statistics show that the prediction of China’s annual earthquake forecast for earthquakes with magnitude 5 or above is not high, However, in the densely populated and economically developed key monitoring areas, the annual prediction of China Seismological Bureau is higher than that of stochastic forecasting, and the actual forecast has achieved certain results.