核心观点:·全球的货币流动性格局已然改变。如果美国次级按揭风波愈演愈烈,全球信用和货币收缩的情况必然会进一步加剧;如果美国次级按揭风波趋于平静,日本以及欧洲国家就会为了应对通货膨胀而加息,全球货币和信用收缩的状况仍然会出现。而更大的货币流动性改变,来自于全球商业和金融机构之间的货币和信用创造能力的变化。·人口因素将推动中国、印度经济长期持续增长,俄罗斯、中东和非洲的资源出口国仍会保持高速增长,而美国从里根时代开始的以美元信用扩张和 Key points: · The global monetary liquidity pattern has changed. If the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis escalates, the global credit and currency contraction will inevitably further intensify. If the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis tends to calm down, Japan and European countries will raise interest rates in response to inflation. The global monetary and credit contraction The situation will still appear. And greater currency liquidity changes stemming from changes in the ability to create money and credit between global business and financial institutions. · Population factor will push China and India to maintain long-term economic growth with Russia, the Middle East and Africa’s resource-exporting countries maintaining their rapid growth. The U.S. credit expansion from the Reagan era