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目前,我国城市轨道交通客流预测大多采用交通产生、吸引、出行分布、出行方式划分四阶段模型,其中出行生成与分布是方式划分和交通分配的前提,是模型重要的组成部分.在对传统的四阶段模型的分析基础上,结合非集计模型的优点,论文提出了基于出行目的链的出行生成—分布组合模型.模型充分考虑了居民出行链、出行目的等对客流预测的影响,在完善我国轨道交通客流预测理论和方法,提高预测精度等方面具有一定的理论价值和实际意义.
At present, the forecast of passenger flow of urban rail transit mostly adopts the four-phase model of traffic generation, attraction, travel distribution and travel mode, in which the travel generation and distribution are the premise of the mode division and traffic distribution, and are the important components of the model. Based on the analysis of four-stage model and combining with the advantages of non-aggregate model, this paper proposes a trip-generation-distribution model based on travel destination chain.The model fully considers the impact of residents’ travel chain and travel purpose on passenger flow forecasting, China’s rail transit passenger flow forecasting theory and method, improve forecasting accuracy and so on has a certain theoretical and practical significance.