基于MFA与AHP的区域循环经济发展动态评价—以江苏省为例

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循环经济实质上是一种生态经济,它要求运用生态学规律而不是机械论规律来指导人类社会的经济活动。生态效率与效益化原则是循环经济的根本原则,为此,对区域循环经济的评价及指标体系设计也必须贯彻这一根本原则。物质流分析(MFA)方法为资源、废弃物和环境管理提供了方法学上的决策支持工具,也为区域循环经济的评价与研究提供了新的思路。本文以江苏省1990年~2005年间循环经济发展状况为例,在阐述物质流分析方法及其指标的基础上,结合层次分析法和“3R”原则构建了适合于研究区的区域循环经济评价指标体系和权重体系,确立了区域循环经济评价指标分级标准,拟定了区域循环经济评判模型,并对其循环经济发展状况进行了分析和评价。结果表明:①江苏省减量化指标大部分时间处于II级水平,即中等循环级别,但其后期有波动下降的趋势;②江苏省资源化指标起点最低,但上升速度最快,到最后甚至达到I级水平,即可循环级别,且仍有上升的趋势;③江苏省无害化指标基本呈抛物线增长趋势,且在后半期也基本处于II级水平,即中等循环级别;④江苏省循环经济发展综合评价指数呈增长趋势,在本研究时间段的后半期达到II级水平,即中等循环状态。其下属的3个功能指标的评价结果表现为:前期:减量化>无害化>资源化,后期:资源化>无害化>减量化;⑤江苏省循环经济发展评价的各个具体指标的评价结果参差不齐,资源利用减量化、资源生产率、废弃物回收再利用和废物处置是其中最为薄弱的几个环节。最后,对循环经济评价指标体系存在的问题进行了分析,并对今后区域循环经济的发展予以了展望。本项研究为区域循环经济和可持续发展研究提供了新的思路。 Recycling economy is essentially an ecological economy, which requires the use of ecological laws rather than mechanistic rules to guide the economic activities of human society. The principle of eco-efficiency and efficiency is the fundamental principle of circular economy. To this end, the evaluation of regional circular economy and the design of indicator system must also implement this fundamental principle. The Material Flow Analysis (MFA) methodology provides a methodological decision support tool for resources, waste and environmental management and provides new insights into the evaluation and research of regional recycling economy. Taking the development of circular economy in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2005 as an example, based on the analysis of material flow analysis method and its indexes, this paper constructs the regional circular economy which is suitable for the study area by combining the analytic hierarchy process with the principle of "3R Evaluation index system and weight system, established regional recycling economy evaluation index grading standards, developed a regional circular economy evaluation model, and its circular economy development status were analyzed and evaluated. The results showed that: (1) Most of the decrement indicators in Jiangsu Province were at the level II level, that is, the medium cycle level, but their tendency of fluctuation decreased at the later stage. (2) Jiangsu Province had the lowest starting point of resource utilization but the fastest rising rate, The level of I level can be recycled, and there is still an upward trend; ③The index of harmlessness in Jiangsu Province shows a trend of parabola growth, which is also at the level of Level II in the second half of the year, that is, at medium cycle level; ④ Jiangsu Province The comprehensive evaluation index of economic development showed an increasing tendency and reached the level II level in the latter half of this study period, that is, the middle-cycle state. The subordinate three functional indicators of the evaluation results are as follows: early: reduction> innocuous> resource-based, late: resource-based> innocuous> reduction; ⑤ circular economy in Jiangsu Province, the development of specific indicators The results of the assessment are uneven, and the reduction of resource utilization, resource productivity, waste recycling and waste disposal are the weakest links among them. Finally, the paper analyzes the problems existing in the evaluation index system of circular economy and looks forward to the future development of regional circular economy. This study provides a new idea for the study of regional circular economy and sustainable development.
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