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从供需两方面,构建了区域灌溉水资源保证程度分析模型,利用该模型对玛纳斯河流域灌溉水资源保证程度进行了分析。结果表明,现状年玛纳斯河流域灌溉水资源保证程度为79.21%,各灌区存在较大的差异,下野地、莫索湾、金安、玛纳斯等灌区灌溉水资源保证程度较低,分别为69.09%、78.76%、78.25%、71.24%,明显处于亏缺状态,而石河子灌区达115.06%,处于相对盈余状态。在各灌区灌溉总面积维持现有数量以及保证灌区水资源安全的前提下,随着加大部分灌区(金安、玛纳斯和石河子灌区)地下水资源开发力度,大力发展高新节水技术以及调整种植结构,近期流域灌溉水资源保证程度总体可接近100%,但流域内除石河子灌区外,下野地、莫索湾、金安、玛纳斯等灌区灌溉水资源仍处于亏缺状态。2020年随着各种综合措施的进一步实施,全流域灌溉保证程度将增加至113.19%,各灌区将实现灌溉水资源供需平衡。最后,针对3类不同灌溉水资源保证程度地区的水资源利用状况,提出了差别化的提升策略。
From the two aspects of supply and demand, this paper constructs the analysis model of guarantee degree of regional irrigation water resources, and uses the model to analyze the degree of guarantee of irrigation water resources in Manas River Basin. The results show that the status quo of Manas River Basin irrigation water resources in the current year is 79.21%, there is a big difference among the irrigation districts. The irrigation water resources of Xiaman, Mosuo Bay, Jin’an and Manas irrigation districts are lower, Respectively, 69.09%, 78.76%, 78.25%, 71.24%, obviously in deficit status, while the Shihezi Irrigation District reached 115.06%, in a relative surplus status. Under the precondition of maintaining the total irrigation area in irrigated areas and ensuring the water resources safety in the irrigated areas, with the development of groundwater resources in most of the irrigated areas (Jin’an, Manas and Shihezi irrigated areas), vigorously develop high and new water-saving technologies and adjust Planting structure, the overall degree of water resources irrigation guarantee in recent basin can be close to 100%, but irrigated water resources in Xiaya, Mosuo Bay, Jin’an and Manas irrigation districts are still in a deficit state except Shihezi Irrigation Basin. With the further implementation of various comprehensive measures in 2020, the degree of irrigation assurance in the whole basin will increase to 113.19%, and the irrigation and water resources supply and demand balance will be realized in all irrigation districts. Finally, aiming at the utilization of water resources in three areas with different levels of irrigation water resources guarantee, a differentiated promotion strategy is put forward.