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为细致地比较投入产出(IO)乘数和社会核算矩阵(SAM)乘数之间的差异,可以把最终需求冲击的产出影响分为四个层次:直接影响、间接影响、引致影响和总影响,并按照这一标准对IO和SAM乘数进行分解。基于2007年中国投入产出表的IO和SAM乘数分析结果表明,由于内生部门设置以及部分数据存在差异,最终需求冲击导致的IO总影响乘数大于SAM总影响乘数,其中,IO引致影响乘数大于SAM引致影响乘数,而IO间接影响乘数小于SAM间接影响乘数。IO总影响乘数与SAM总影响乘数排序不同主要是因为间接影响乘数的排序存在差异,引致影响乘数排序几乎完全一致。SAM乘数在测算最终需求冲击导致的各类产出影响方面更有优势。
To carefully compare the differences between the IO multiplier and the SAM multiplier, the output impact of the final demand shock can be divided into four levels: direct impact, indirect impact, impact and The total impact, and in accordance with this standard IO and SAM multiplier decomposition. The analysis of IO and SAM multipliers based on China’s input-output table for 2007 shows that due to the differences in endogenous departments settings and partial data, the IO total impact multiplier caused by the final demand shock is greater than the SAM total impact multiplier, where IO is the The impact multiplier is larger than the SAM-induced impact multiplier, while the IO indirect impact multiplier is less than the SAM indirectly affecting multiplier. The difference in total order of influence multipliers and SAM total influence multipliers is mainly due to differences in the rankings that indirectly affect the multipliers, resulting in an almost identical effect on the multiplier rankings. SAM multipliers are more advantageous in estimating the impact of various outputs due to the impact of final demand shocks.