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在前人研究的基础上结合中国统计局《中国农业统计年鉴》1978-2007年主要农业气象灾害成灾面积、经济损失等资料与全国气象站点气象要素资料,总结了气候变化对我国农业气象灾害发生发展的影响,各类农业病虫害由于气候变暖特别是暖冬出现的新的变化发展趋势。结果表明,在已有气候变暖的影响下,绝大部分农业气象灾害危害加重、发生频繁,特别是极端气候事件发生频率加大,极大的威胁着中国粮食生产的安全。气候变化对农业病虫害的影响也是如此,气候变暖造成病虫害发生世代数增加,危害范围扩大,为害程度加重,给农业病虫害的综合防治带来困难。未来农业气象灾害、病虫害会更加频繁,使农业生产的不稳定性加大,应予以积极应对。
Based on the previous studies and combining the data of disaster areas and economic losses of major agricultural meteorological disasters from 1978 to 2007 in China Statistical Yearbook of Agriculture, with the data of meteorological elements of the national meteorological stations, the author summarizes the impact of climate change on agricultural meteorological disasters in China The impact of development and development, all kinds of agricultural pests and diseases as a result of climate warming, especially the emergence of new changes in the development trend of warm winter. The results show that under the influence of existing climate warming, the aggravating and frequent occurrence of most agricultural meteorological disasters, especially the frequent occurrence of extreme climate events, greatly threaten the safety of food production in China. The same is true for the impact of climate change on agricultural pests and diseases. Climate warming causes the generation number of pests and diseases to increase, the scope of harm to expand, the degree of harm to increase, to the comprehensive prevention and control of agricultural pests and diseases. Future agricultural meteorological disasters, pests and diseases will be more frequent, so that the instability of agricultural production increased, we should actively respond.