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金融发展对中国农村反贫困的意义长期被忽略。文章基于1978-2010年时间序列数据,通过采用一系列具有良好小样本性质的时间序列分析方法研究发现,从长期看,即使控制经济增长的涓流效应,农村贫困人口也可从私营部门信贷增长及货币化进程中获益;从短期看,私营部门信贷对贫困发生率具有预测作用。研究表明,中国农村贫困人口能够直接分享金融发展的红利。这为金融扶贫战略的重要性提供了学理层面上的支持,其政策涵义是,为巩固农村反贫困成就,维护社会公平,中国金融改革应坚定不移地走包容性发展之路。
The implications of financial development for anti-poverty in rural China have long been neglected. Based on time series data from 1978 to 2010, the article uses a series of time series analysis methods with good small sample to find that, in the long run, even if the trickle-flow effect of economic growth is controlled, the rural poor can also benefit from the credit growth in the private sector And the monetization process; in the short run, private sector credit has a predictor of the incidence of poverty. Research shows that China’s rural poor can directly share the dividend of financial development. This provides academic level support for the importance of the financial poverty alleviation strategy. Its policy implication is that in order to consolidate the anti-poverty achievements in rural areas and safeguard social equity, China’s financial reform should unswervingly follow the path of inclusive development.