一、教材分析“条件概率”在教材中起着承前启后的作用,不仅可以巩固和加深对古典概型和几何概型的理解,而且为研究相互独立事件打下良好的基础。二、学情分析学生在必修教材中已经学习过古典概型的概念,能够理解随机试验、随机事件的含义,这为本节学习条件概率做好了知识准备;同时,学生能够运用分类或分步原理求解事件包含的基本事件的个数,而且在排列组合知识的学习中,学生在解题策略和思维模式方面已经过训练,这些为本节的学习做好了能力准备。 First, the textbook analysis “conditional probability ” plays an important role in the textbook, not only to consolidate and deepen the understanding of classical and geometric patterns, but also to lay a good foundation for the study of independent events. Second, the academic analysis Students in the compulsory textbook has learned the concept of classical profiles, to understand the meaning of randomized trials, random events, which makes the learning conditions for the probability of knowledge prepared; the same time, students can use the classification or sub The step-by-step principle solves the number of basic events involved in an event, and students are trained in problem-solving strategies and patterns of thinking in arranging combinatorial knowledge that are well prepared for the study in this section.