利用统计预测方法对医院门诊工作量进行预测,可以为医院管理者的未来决策提供科学依据,对医院人员编制及床位、药品调配等方面具有指导意义。各类统计预测方法繁杂,预测结果存在一定差异。我们以我院1996～1998年3个年度门诊工作量数据为基础,比较研究3种不同的统计预测方法对 The use of statistical forecasting methods to predict the outpatient workload of hospitals can provide scientific basis for the future decision-making of hospital administrators, and it has guiding significance for hospital staffing, bed allocation and drug deployment. All kinds of statistical prediction methods are complex and there are certain differences in the prediction results. Based on the three years of outpatient workload in our hospital from 1996 to 1998, we compared three different statistical prediction methods.