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本文利用中尺度数值模式MM5以及Calmet模型,结合地面和高空观测资料对鄱阳湖区复杂地形条件下风能资源进行动力降尺度研究,并结合鄱阳湖区4个代表风场一年实测资料对模拟结果进行全面分析,得出:动力降尺度方法能够较好地模拟出鄱阳湖区风能资源的空间分布,鄱阳湖区风功率密度高值区主要在鄱阳湖区狭长湖道南侧的水域和湖岸两侧,鄱阳湖北部狭管湖道为高值中心区。风能资源的数值模拟结果月变化特征与观测期间大风出现的时间十分吻合。各风场风向、风能方向以及风速频率分布模拟与实测结果比较一致,但在量级上有一定的偏差。各风场日平均风速模拟值与实测值年相关系数为0.647～0.780,鄱阳湖区70m高度年平均风速模拟值与测风塔实测值相对误差为6.77%。总体来说,动力降尺度方法模拟效果较好,可以作为区域风能资源评价和特性分析的有效手段。
In this paper, the meso-scale numerical model MM5 and Calmet model are used to study the downscaling of wind resources under the complex terrain conditions in Poyang Lake area by combining the surface and upper-air observation data. Based on the annual measured data of 4 representative wind farms in Poyang Lake area, The results show that the dynamic downscaling method can well simulate the spatial distribution of wind energy resources in Poyang Lake. The high value of wind power density in Poyang Lake is mainly located in the waters and lakeshores on the south side of the Long Lake Road in Poyang Lake area and the north of Poyang Lake Narrow pipe lanes are high value centers. The monthly variation of the numerical results of wind energy resources coincides well with the appearance of strong wind during the observation period. Wind direction, direction of wind energy and wind speed frequency distribution simulation and measured results are more consistent, but there is a certain degree of deviation in the magnitude. The annual correlation coefficient between daily average wind speed and measured value was 0.647 ~ 0.780. The relative error between the simulated average annual wind speed at 70m in Poyang Lake and the measured value of wind tower was 6.77%. In general, the dynamic downscaling method has a good simulation effect, which can be used as an effective means to evaluate and characterize the regional wind energy resources.