采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当。 The F 10.7 mid-term forecasting was carried out by using the autoregressive method in the time series model.The results of the forecasting experiment and error analysis showed that at the low level of solar activity, the autoregressive forecasting method of 27 days with F 10.7 The prediction accuracy is high and the prediction effect is better, but the prediction effect is not good when there is a large activity zone on the sun.It shows that the autoregressive method in the time series model can better reflect the solar F_ (10.7) 27 Day-periodic characteristics have some applicability to the establishment of F_ (10.7) mid-term forecasting model.By comparing the forecast results from September 21, 2005 to June 7, 2007, it can be seen that the value of the method of autoregressive analysis Accuracy and the United States Air Force forecast fairly.