论文部分内容阅读
为解决地铁列车运营系统安全风险评估中较少考虑专家行为偏好和风险因子权重部分已知的问题,提出基于前景理论(PT)和失效模式及影响分析(FMEA)的风险评估方法,并分为4个步骤,即由专家团队基于经验和历史数据确定风险因子权重取值范围。采用逼近理想解法(TOPSIS)构建风险因子权重优化模型,利用PT将评价矩阵转化前景值矩阵,并应用偏好序结构排序法(PROMETHEE)进行失效模式风险排序。以某市地铁列车非正常停车风险评估为例,验证该方法的有效性和可行性。结果表明,地铁列车非正常停车失效模式风险排序前3位的是突发事件、异物入侵、人的干扰,这与实际情况相符。
In order to solve some known problems about the safety risk assessment of subway train operation system with less consideration of expert behavior preference and risk factor weight, a risk assessment method based on prospect theory (PT) and failure mode and impact analysis (FMEA) is proposed and divided into 4 steps, that is, the team of experts determines the range of weights for risk factors based on experience and historical data. The TOPSIS model was used to construct the risk factor weight optimization model. PT was used to transform the evaluation matrix into the foreground matrix, and the PROMETHEE method was used to rank the failure modes. Taking the risk assessment of abnormal parking of subway in a certain city as an example, the validity and feasibility of this method are verified. The results show that the top three risk factors of non-normal parking failure modes of subway trains are emergencies, foreign body intrusion and human interference, which is consistent with the actual situation.