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基于种群演变和共生理论,采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数描述航运市场整体需求,从顾客的购买行为出发,以收益最大作为集装箱班轮公司的经营目标,以基于时间序列的运力与运价作为决策变量,构建了集装箱班轮公司航次运力销售过程优化模型。运用Taylor公式与最小二乘法等代数变换手段将非线性规划问题转化为线性规划问题,对关键参数进行了标定与敏感性分析,并利用MATLAB软件进行仿真验证。仿真结果表明:当单个集装箱班轮公司的运力为104 TEU时,采用常规的销售策略,集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力为7 534~9 966TEU,获得收益为1 233 158~12 915 936USD,采用提出的优化模型,可售出的运力为9 915TEU,获得收益为15 111 975USD,收益至少提高17%;当2个集装箱班轮公司的运力均为104 TEU时,采用提出的优化模型,2个集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力分别为9 920、9 947TEU,获得收益分别为14 241 771、9 737 528USD,达到纳什均衡;当3个集装箱班轮公司的运力均为104 TEU时,采用提出的优化模型,3个集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力分别为8 289、5 526、6 034TEU,获得收益分别为6 755 755、6 119 906、4 377 758USD,达到纳什均衡。可见提出的模型可描述多个集装箱班轮公司运力销售情况,且表现出显著的优化效果。
Based on the theory of population evolution and symbiosis, the Cobb-Douglas production function is used to describe the overall demand of the shipping market. Based on the customer purchasing behavior, the profit maximization is taken as the operating objective of the container liner company, and the capacity and freight rate based on time series are taken as decision variables. The optimization model of the shipping capacity of container liner company is established. The algebraic transformation such as the Taylor formula and the least square method are used to transform the nonlinear programming problem into the linear programming problem. The calibration and sensitivity analysis of the key parameters are carried out and the simulation is verified by MATLAB software. The simulation results show that when the shipping capacity of a single container liner company is 104 TEU, the conventional sales strategy is adopted. The shipping capacity of container liner companies is 7 534-9 966 TEU and the revenue is 1 233 158 to 12 915 936 USD. , The unit sold 9,915TEU with a profit of 15,111,975USD and a revenue increase of at least 17%. When the two container liner companies each had a capacity of 104 TEU, the proposed optimization model was adopted and two container shipping lines The Company sold 9 920,9 947 TEU of capacity and obtained gains of 14 241 771 and 9 737 528 USD respectively, reaching Nash equilibrium. When all the three container liner companies had a capacity of 104 TEU, the proposed optimization model was adopted, The shipping capacity of the three container liner companies was 8 289,5 526,6 034TEU respectively, with gains of 6 755 755, 6 119 906 and 4 377 758USD, respectively, reaching Nash equilibrium. It can be seen that the proposed model can describe the capacity sales of a number of container liner companies and show significant optimization results.