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目的验证血液、肠道和呼吸道传播传染病发病是否仍然存在传染病季节流行现象(“Z-D”现象),并且对前兆升集合与前兆降集合分界点的选取进行改良。方法利用2004-01/2014-04传染病疫情资料,建立相关疾病的时间序列,进行最佳截取点的月累计百分位数与前兆升降比的相关分析,运用建立的预测模型进行回顾性验证和外推性验证。结果全国甲肝、乙肝的时间序列存在“Z-D”现象,丙肝、戊肝、伤寒和副伤寒、百日咳、细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾、肺结核、流行性脑脊髓膜炎、麻疹和猩红热的时间序列不存在“Z-D”现象。通过Excel 2003软件获取甲肝、乙肝的最佳截取点分别在11月和8月,两者最佳截取点的月累计百分位数与流行年前兆升降比都呈负相关关系(甲肝:r=-0.9378,P=0.006;乙肝:r=-0.8473,P=0.033),回顾性验证符合率分别为100%、83.3%,外推性验证符合率分别为100%、33.3%。结论全国甲肝、乙肝流行中存在“Z-D”现象,但乙肝的外推性预测符合率较低。
Objective To verify whether the epidemic of infectious diseases (“Z-D” phenomenon) still exists in the pathogenesis of blood, intestinal and respiratory-transmitted infectious diseases and to improve the selection of the cut-off points of precursor ascending and precursor declining sets. Methods Based on the epidemic data of infectious diseases from January 2004 to April 2014, the time series of related diseases were established. Correlation analysis between the monthly cumulative percentile of the best interception points and the rate of advancement and fall of the precursors was carried out. The predictive model was established for retrospective validation And extrapolation verification. Results There was a “ZD” phenomenon in the time series of hepatitis A and hepatitis B in China. Hepatitis C, hepatitis E, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, whooping cough, bacillary and amoebic dysentery, tuberculosis, epidemic meningococcal meningitis, measles and scarlet fever Time series does not exist “ZD ” phenomenon. The best interception point of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis B by Excel 2003 software was in November and August, respectively, and the monthly cumulative percentile of the best interception point of both was negatively correlated with the meteorological rise and fall ratio of pre-epidemic year (Hepatitis A: r = -0.9378, P = 0.006; Hepatitis B: r = -0.8473, P = 0.033). The coincidence rates of retrospective validation were 100% and 83.3% respectively. The coincidence rates of extrapolation and validation were 100% and 33.3% respectively. Conclusion There is a “Z-D” phenomenon in the epidemic of hepatitis A and B in China, but the extrapolation predictive value of hepatitis B is lower.