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在终端需求明显走弱之前,由于政策预期和存货行为摇摆,短期经济动能仍可能阶段反复,同时考虑粮食以及低端劳动力市场工资增速持续走低,通货膨胀水平仍将继续下行。5月工业增长6%,水泥量价坚挺,短期经济增长平稳。由于商品房销售的持续高增长难以维持,再考虑到基建投资的托底性质和力度有限、私人部门投资的持续低迷,未来经济再度脉冲回落恐怕难以避免。在终端需求明显走弱之前,由于政策预期和存货行为的摇摆,短期
Short-term economic momentum may still be staged ahead of schedule due to policy expectations and stock movements before the terminal demand is significantly weakened. At the same time, considering that food and the wage growth in the low-end labor market continue to decline, the inflation level will continue to decline. May industrial growth of 6%, cement volume firm, short-term economic growth stable. Given the persistent high growth of commercial housing sales, considering the nature and intensity of infrastructural investment and the downturn in investment in the private sector, it is very difficult to avoid another pulse of economic decline. In the terminal demand was significantly weaker before, due to policy expectations and the swing of inventory behavior, short-term