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目的应用SAS 9.3软件建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对中国围产儿死亡率进行预测,为妇幼保健工作提供参考。方法以中国2005—2013年围产儿死亡率数据为基础,建立GM(1,1)模型并进行预测。结果GM(1,1)预测模型为^X(1)(t+1)=-124.2050e-0.0816598t+134.4750,预测结果显示,我国2014—2016年围产儿死亡率分别为5.067 81‰、4.670 42‰、4.304 19‰;各种模型检验结果显示,模型的预测精度等级较高,可用于外推。结论 GM(1,1)模型对中国围产儿死亡率预测效果较好,呈逐年下降趋势,该预测结果对我国妇幼工作有一定的指导意义。
Objective To establish a gray GM (1,1) prediction model with SAS 9.3 software to predict the mortality rate of perinatal children in China, and provide a reference for maternal and child health care. Methods Based on the data of perinatal mortality in China from 2005 to 2013, the GM (1,1) model was established and predicted. Results The GM (1,1) predictive model was ^ X (1) (t + 1) = - 124.2050e-0.0816598t + 134.4750. The forecast results showed that the perinatal mortality rates in China from 2014 to 2016 were 5.067 81 ‰ and 4.670 42 ‰, 4.304 19 ‰. The results of various model tests show that the prediction accuracy of the model is high and can be used for extrapolation. Conclusion The GM (1,1) model has a good predictive effect on the mortality rate of perinatal children in China, showing a declining trend year by year. The results of this prediction have some guiding significance for the work of women and children in our country.