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宁蒙沿黄地带属于中国西北干旱半干旱快速城市化地区,研究这一典型地区的城镇用地扩展对丰富城镇用地扩展机制的理论研究和提供相应政策建议具有理论和现实意义。论文利用Logistic回归分析2000—2005年城镇用地扩展的主要驱动力,计算城镇用地转换适宜度矩阵,结合CA-Markov模型模拟3种情景下城镇用地扩展趋势。结果表明:2000—2005年,城镇用地的主要来源是耕地,其次是草地及极少量农村居民点和工矿用地。对城镇用地变化影响最大的因素依次是邻域内城镇用地比重、年降水量、到2001年国道距离、到水域距离、到2001年省道距离以及到2000年土地利用中耕地、林地和草地的距离。一切照常情景下,2016年宁蒙沿黄地带城镇用地总量约997 km2,主要分布在呼和浩特市区、包头市区等主要城市边缘;规划情景下,城镇用地规模达到1 525 km2,分布格局与一切照常情景类似;生态保护情景下,城镇用地规模总量达到1 480 km2,城镇用地沿交通轴扩展呈组团分布。由此得出主要结论:大城市边缘区和交通线是城镇用地发生的主要影响因素;通过总量控制的区域整体城镇用地规划可以优化区域整体城镇用地扩展格局。
The Yellow River Belts in Ningmeng Belong to the Rapid Urbanization of Arid and Semi-Arid Regions in Northwest China. It is of both theoretical and practical significance to study the theoretical study and the corresponding policy proposals on the expansion of urban land in this typical area. The paper uses Logistic regression to analyze the main driving force of urban land expansion from 2000 to 2005, calculates the urban land conversion suitability matrix, and simulates the urban land expansion trend with CA-Markov model. The results showed that from 2000 to 2005, the main source of urban land was farmland, followed by grassland and a very small amount of rural settlements and industrial and mining land. The factors that have the greatest impact on the change of urban land use are the proportion of urban land in the neighborhood, the annual precipitation, the distance from the national highway to the water in 2001, the provincial highway distance in 2001 and the cultivated land, forest land and grassland in land use by the year 2000 . Under all usual scenarios, the land use of urban land along the Yellow River in Ningmeng City was about 997 km2 in 2016, mainly distributed in the edge of major cities such as Hohhot City and Baotou Urban Area. Under the planning scenario, the urban land use size reached 1 525 km 2, All the usual scenarios are similar; under the ecological protection scenario, the total scale of urban land use reaches 1 480 km2, and the urban land along the traffic axis expands to organize groups. The main conclusions are drawn as follows: The marginal area and the traffic line in the metropolitan area are the main influencing factors for urban land use; and the total urban land use planning in the region controlled by the total amount can optimize the urban land expansion pattern in the region.