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文章基于1999～2006年中国和东盟五国早期收获产品(EHP)贸易流量数据,应用贸易比重指数和行业贸易引力模型,评估中国和东盟五国早期收获产品的贸易效应。结果表明,CAFTA对成员国的EHP区内出口具有贸易扩大效应;同时对东盟五国之间和区外国家与成员国的EHP进出口存在贸易转移效应。在CAFTA今后的建设中,成员国应该采取措施,在促进区内贸易扩大的同时,减少对区外的贸易转移,以获得更大的贸易创造。
Based on the trade flow data of early harvested products (EHP) between China and ASEAN from 1999 to 2006, this paper evaluates the trade effects of early harvested products between China and ASEAN countries by applying trade proportion index and trade trade gravity model. The results show that CAFTA has trade expansion effect on EHP exports in member countries and trade transfer effect on EHP import and export between five ASEAN countries and member countries. In the future construction of CAFTA, member states should take measures to reduce the trade transfer to the outside of the region in order to promote greater trade creation while promoting the expansion of intra-regional trade.