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据赤道经向风剖面及热带西太平洋岛屿站测风资料来诊断厄尔尼诺(ElNino)事件,试图从观测事实方面来跟踪与预测ElNino的发生。分析结果得出:气候监测公报中850hPa风指数对监测、诊断已发生的ElNino事件较好,但不能用来预测ElNino事件的发生,而热带西太平洋岛屿站月平均纬向风对ElNino事件的发生有一定的指示意义。从越赤道气流的演变特征进一步证明,ElNino事件对应于弱季风,而拉尼娜(LaNina)事件对应于强季风。
According to the equatorial meridional wind profile and tropical Pacific Islands Island station wind data, the El Niño event is diagnosed, trying to track and predict the occurrence of ElNino from the observed facts. The results show that the 850hPa wind index in the climate monitoring bulletin is good for monitoring and diagnosing El Nino events but not for predicting the occurrence of El Niño event while the average zonal wind over the tropical western Pacific Island station has an impact on El Nino events Have a certain meaning. Evidence from the evolution of the cross-equatorial flow further proves that the El Niño event corresponds to a weak monsoon, whereas the La Niña event corresponds to a strong monsoon.