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近年来随着我国劳动力成本的日益上升,引发人们对东部沿海地区加工制造业对外出口的担忧。本文选取2000-2015年东部沿海30个主要城市的加工制造业数据,运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)实证分析我国东部沿海地区主要城市加工制造业工资与出口额的大小变动关系。结果显示:该地区的出口对工资水平的提升有显著的促进作用,而工资上升对加工制造业出口却有一定负面影响,但这种影响在长期内趋近于零。因此,对工资上升带来的危害性不宜过分解读。文章最后结合实证结果给出了一些政策建议。
In recent years, with the rising cost of labor in our country, people are worried about the export of processing and manufacturing industries in the eastern coastal areas. This paper selects processing and manufacturing data of 30 major cities along the eastern coast from 2000 to 2015 and empirically analyzes the relationship between the changes of the wage and the export volume in the manufacturing and processing industries in major cities of the eastern coastal areas of China using panel autoregressive model (PVAR). The results show that: the region’s exports have a significant role in promoting wage increases, while rising wages have a certain negative impact on the export of processing and manufacturing industries, but the impact in the long run approaches zero. Therefore, the harmful effects of rising wages should not be interpreted too much. Finally, the article gives some policy suggestions based on the empirical results.