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本文从自然实验视角介绍并评价第28届克拉克奖得主史蒂文·莱维特在犯罪经济学研究方面的贡献。莱维特利用“自然实验”方法,检验了一系列犯罪经济学的基本假说,具体包括:威慑效应与能力剥夺效应的区分,警察规模的犯罪威慑效应,监禁在犯罪惩治中的作用,以及堕胎合法化对长期犯罪率降低的因果效应。从自然实验的方法论逻辑看,莱维特的研究挖掘了众多巧妙的实验场景,对犯罪经济学乃至经济学假说的实证检验具有启发意义,也为实验方法和思想在经济研究中的运用提供良好的示范,但是实验结论的推广和应用值得进一步讨论。
This article introduces and assesses the contribution of 28th Clarke Prize winner Steven Levitt to the study of criminal economics from a natural experimental perspective. Levitt used the “natural experiment” method to examine a series of basic hypotheses of criminal economics, including: the distinction between the deterrent effect and the deprivation of ability ability, the criminal deterrent effect of the police scale, the role of imprisonment in the punishment of crimes, and The Causal Effect of Legalization of Abortion on Prolonged Crimes. From the methodological logic of natural experiment, Levitt’s research excavated a large number of ingenious experimental scenarios, which are instructive for the empirical test of criminal economics and even economic hypothesis, and also provide a good example for the application of experimental methods and ideas in economic research Demonstration, but the promotion and application of experimental conclusions deserve further discussion.