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本文应用时间序列分解法分析了我国蔬菜价格短期波动的结构性特征。研究发现:1994-2014年,我国蔬菜价格短期波动表现为季节性波动减弱,而价格周期性波动、不规则波动增强;果菜类价格季节性波动强度要大于叶菜类和根茎类,季节性因素是引起果菜类短期波动的重要原因,叶菜类和根茎类价格的周期性、不规则波动强度大于果菜类,非季节性因素是叶菜类和根菜类短期波动的重要原因。最后,本文提出了相关调控建议。
In this paper, the time series decomposition method is used to analyze the structural characteristics of short-term vegetable price fluctuations in China. The study found that: from 1994 to 2014, the short-term fluctuations of vegetable prices in our country showed a seasonal fluctuation weakened, while the price fluctuated cyclically and the irregular fluctuations increased. The seasonal fluctuation of fruit and vegetable prices was greater than that of leafy vegetables and rhizomes. Seasonal factors Is the main cause of short-term fluctuations in fruits and vegetables, the periodic and irregular fluctuations of leaf vegetables and rhizomes are greater than that of fruits and vegetables. Non-seasonal factors are the important reasons for the short-term fluctuations of leafy vegetables and root vegetables. Finally, this article puts forward the relevant regulation and control suggestion.