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结合航空航天推进系统可靠性试验小子样的特点,在小子样条件下,首先对基于Bayes方法[1-2]性能退化轨道参数的计算模型进行研究,然后结合随机变量函数的分布的计算[3],推导出系统可靠性后验估计和置信下限估计的计算公式。在理论推导的基础上,结合工程实例说明该方法的有效性。
Combining with the characteristics of small sample of reliability test of aerospace propulsion system, the calculation model of performance degraded orbit parameters based on Bayes method [1-2] is studied under the condition of small sample, and then with the calculation of the distribution of random variable function [3 ], The formulas of the system reliability a posteriori estimation and the confidence lower bound estimation are deduced. On the basis of theoretical deduction, the effectiveness of this method is illustrated with engineering examples.