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本文建立了一个能反映中国经济特征的两国DSGE模型,用1995～2011年中国和主要贸易对象国的宏观季度数据估计模型参数,研究了国际冲击对中国的传导机制。结果显示:(1)中国经济存在较高的价格粘性,且贸易和进口部门的价格粘性显著高于非贸易部门,这是汇率不完全传递的重要表现;(2)从估计结果看,我国当前的汇率制度更接近于附加较大持续性升值冲击的钉住汇率制,且国际利率冲击不会直接影响国内经济;(3)国际产出冲击主要通过国际风险分担机制传导;(4)国际价格冲击主要通过LOP缺口的调整机制传导;(5)国际冲击在我国的传导表现出了与汇率完全传递条件下完全不同的特征,不仅在量上,在影响的方向上都存在差异。
This paper establishes a DSGE model reflecting the economic characteristics of China and estimates the model parameters from the macro-quarterly data of China and major trading partners from 1995 to 2011 to study the transmission mechanism of international impact on China. The results show that: (1) China’s economy has a high price-stickiness, and the price stickiness of the trade and import sectors is significantly higher than that of the non-trade sectors. This is an important manifestation of the incomplete transfer of exchange rates. (2) From the estimation results, Of the exchange rate system is closer to the pegged exchange rate system with greater sustained appreciation shocks and the impact of the international interest rate will not directly affect the domestic economy; (3) the impact of international output is mainly transmitted through the international risk sharing mechanism; (4) the international price The impact is mainly transmitted through the adjustment mechanism of the LOP gap. (5) The transmission of international impact in China shows completely different characteristics under the complete transfer of exchange rate, not only in terms of quantity but also in the direction of influence.