基于蒙特卡洛模拟方法建立了环境容量限制下的居民出行总量动力学模型,使用模糊推理方法预测出租车对出行总量的分担率,在此基础上求得了该城市的出租车最佳数量.根据基于激励约束机制的出租车定价模型,结合司机和乘客的共同利益,给出了油价上涨后的调价方案:①将起步价由目前的8元上调到8.5元;②将起租基价公里数由现在的3公里降低到2.75公里;③将每公里单价由1.8元上升到2元.最后,对各模型的进一步改善进行了讨论. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the dynamic model of residents ’total travel volume under environmental capacity constraints was established. The fuzzy reasoning method was used to predict the share of taxis’ total travel volume. On this basis, the optimal number of taxis According to the taxi pricing model based on the incentive and restraint mechanism and the common interests of drivers and passengers, the price adjustment plan after the oil price rise is given: (1) The starting price is raised from the current 8 yuan to 8.5 yuan; (2) The number is reduced from the current 3 km to 2.75 km, and the unit price per kilometer is raised from 1.8 yuan to 2. Finally, the further improvement of each model is discussed.