A REVIEW ON THE LONG TERM VARIATIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION

来源 :Tropical Cyclone Research and Review | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:ywyyang
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
A review on the long term variations of tropical cyclone(TC) activity in the Typhoon Committee region was conducted based on the assessments of IPCC, IWTC and ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee and a number of recent publications. The results reveal strong inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in the TC activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Analysis of available TC data since 1950 s indicates that most of the TC datasets depict a decreasing trend, and some statistically significant, in the annual number of TCs and typhoons in the WNP. For TC intensity, differences in TC databases for the WNP do not allow a convincing detection of a long term trend in this basin. Climate model projections suggest a noticeable decrease in the frequency of the WNP TCs in the 21 st century. Some of the model simulations also report an increase in the number of intense TCs and the TC potential intensity in the WNP in a warmer climate. Looking forward, data homogeneity in TC databases and uncertainties in model simulation are two main hurdles hindering the determination of the past and future trends of TC activity in this basin. Inter-agency co-operations are urgently required to improve the homogeneity and consistency of TC databases in the WNP. Continuous research would also be needed to further our understanding of the influence of natural variability and anthropogenic warming on the TC activity in the WNP.
其他文献
<正> 在受贿案件中,比较普通的是“一对一”的犯罪,根据我国目前的司法实践,只要行、受贿一方不予供认,案件就难以成立,加之这些人有一定职位和比较广泛的关系网,使得“一对
随着建筑业的蓬勃发展,我国的高层建筑数量呈几何级数递增。从发展趋势看高层建筑越来越高,向下发展越来越深,这对基坑边坡工程提出了严峻的挑战。边坡的失稳造成的滑坡、崩塌是
多细胞真核生物的基因组DNA承载了从单个受精卵发育成完整生物体所需的所有遗传信息。为了维持种系的稳定性,DNA编码的遗传信息需要如实地传递给子代;另一方面,为了编码产生
近年来,农村留守初中生心理健康问题倍受社会各界的广泛关注。本文综合概括了不同领域和学科背景的研究者在农村留守初中生的内涵、心理健康现状、影响因素和对策方面所取得
目的开展ICU突发事件应急演练,提高ICU护士的应急能力。方法运用PDCA循环的护理质量管理方法,拟定突发事件应急演练内容,如:夜班期间中心供氧发生故障,CT检查途中患者突发呼
方格图简洁直观、有趣味、易操作,且有多种表征形式,是学生学习数学的重要工具。综观苏教版小学数学教材,约有150次使用方格图,我们应从新的视角审视方格图的现实内涵,并以发
设计了一个由制造商(融资企业)、银行以及物流企业所组成的物流金融系统。在企业资金约束以及违约内生的情况下,运用Stackelberg动态博弈理论详细分析了银行的最优质押率决策
<正>方格图作为一种数学工具在小学数学教学活动中被普遍应用,它对学生数学思想、数学方法,甚至是数学能力的培养都有着不可估量的价值。但在教学一线,它的使用并不乐观,教师
企业效能监察在强化监督职能、规范表率行为、提升管理水平、促进科学发展等方面,发挥着重要的监督、保障、预防和信息反馈作用。油田企业效能监察工作经过十多年的积极探索
在知识经济时代,信息的作用肯定是越来越大。为此,企业家必须对企业的有效信息进行判定,企业有效信息的判定,利用网络信息进行决策,在企业中建立完善的网络系统,提高网络建设