论文部分内容阅读
目的利用层次聚类分析法,对我国各省(直辖市、自治区)流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病进行综合评判分类,并对全国未来发病趋势进行预测,为降低乙脑发病提供理论依据。方法收集全国各省1992-2011年乙脑发病率数据;采用Q型聚类分析对我国各省乙脑发病率进行综合评判分类,应用GM(1,1)模型对全国未来发病趋势进行预测。结果聚类分析结果显示全国乙脑高发省份为贵州、重庆、云南、河南、四川、安徽、陕西等省(直辖市),其余省聚为一类,发病率较低;我国乙脑发病近年呈下降趋势,GM(1,1)模型预测得到乙脑发病的趋势与实际值基本一致,进一步预测2012-2014年乙脑的发病率分别为0.24/10万、0.22/10万、0.20/10万。结论我国乙脑的未来发病仍呈下降趋势,乙脑发病存在明显的高发区,应对该地区进一步加强防控。
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in various provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China by using hierarchical cluster analysis, and to predict the future incidence of JE in China and provide a theoretical basis for reducing the incidence of JE. Methods The incidence of Japanese encephalitis was collected from 1992 to 2011 in all provinces of China. The incidence of Japanese encephalitis in each province of China was evaluated by Q - type cluster analysis. The GM (1,1) model was used to predict the future incidence of Japanese encephalitis. Results The cluster analysis showed that the high incidence of Japanese encephalitis occurred in Guizhou, Chongqing, Yunnan, Henan, Sichuan, Anhui and Shaanxi provinces. The remaining provinces were clustered into one category with relatively low incidence. The incidence of Japanese encephalitis in recent years was declining Trend, the tendency of GM (1,1) model predicting the incidence of Japanese encephalitis is basically consistent with the actual value, and further predicting the incidence rates of Japanese encephalitis from 2012 to 2014 are 0.24 / 100,000, 0.22 / 100,000 and 0.20 / 100,000 respectively. Conclusion The future incidence of Japanese encephalitis still shows a downward trend. There is a clear high incidence of Japanese encephalitis and the prevention and control of this area should be further strengthened.