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基于新经济地理和内生增长模型,对集聚的影响因素以及集聚和增长的关系进行微观分析,发现要素区际流动自由度提高和地区间收入差距扩大是引起集聚的重要因素。利用1978—2008年间中国省级地区和行业数据进行检验,结果显示我国地区间资源分布呈现中心——边缘格局,并具有极化趋势;地区间分行业要素配置的集中度总体趋同,但是20世纪90年代中后期以来制造业快速集聚的趋势值得关注。进一步研究发现,20世纪90年代以来地区集聚、制造业集聚与经济增长负相关,证实了目前资源过度集聚降低了效率。鉴于此,目前我国空间分布的极化趋势和制造业的过度集聚不可持续。
Based on the new economic geography and endogenous growth model, the micro-analysis of the influencing factors of agglomeration and the relationship between agglomeration and growth shows that the increase of freedom of inter-region mobility and the widening of income gap between regions are the important factors that cause agglomeration. Using the data of China’s provincial level and industry from 1978 to 2008, the results show that the regional distribution of resources in our country presents a center-periphery pattern and has the tendency of polarization. The concentration of elements in different industries is generally converged in the 20th century The trend of rapid agglomeration of manufacturing industry since the mid and late 1990s is worth attention. Further study found that since the 1990s, regional agglomeration, manufacturing agglomeration and negative growth-related economic growth, confirming the current over-concentration of resources to reduce efficiency. In view of this, at present, the polarization of China’s spatial distribution and over-agglomeration of manufacturing industries are not sustainable.