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本文通过建立一个加入外国投资部门的一般均衡两国模型分析外国直接投资(FDI)流入、不断扩大的贸易顺差和人民币的升值压力之间的关系。理论分析表明,在均衡条件下,随着FDI部门的扩张,一国贸易会出现顺差。而被投资国的货币是否升值取决于FDI的技术条件和垄断程度,FDI的技术水平相对于国内技术水平较高,或者FDI部门的垄断程度较低时,FDI部门的扩张将导致本国货币升值。另外,以引进新产品方式为主的FDI流入更有利于提高本国的福利。
This article analyzes the relationship between FDI inflows, expanding trade surpluses, and the pressure of RMB appreciation through the establishment of a general equilibrium two-country model that joins foreign investment. Theoretical analysis shows that under the equilibrium conditions, with the expansion of FDI departments, trade surplus in a country will occur. Whether the currency of the invested country will rise depends on the technical conditions and degree of monopoly of FDI, the technical level of FDI relative to the high level of domestic technology, or the low degree of monopoly of the FDI sector, the expansion of the FDI sector will lead to the appreciation of the domestic currency. In addition, FDI inflows based on the introduction of new products are more conducive to raising their own welfare.